PolicyEngine · MaxGhenis · Sep 29, 2026 · Sep 28, 2026 · Sep 28, 2026
diff --git a/changelog.d/535.changed.md b/changelog.d/535.changed.md
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Bump policyengine-uk to 2.102.3, which rebases the absolute poverty line to HBAI's FYE 2025 reference year (431.69 BHC / 373.89 AHC a week at FYE 2025, as DWP has reported it since March 2026), and certify the UK data release `policyengine-uk-data-1.56.16` (enhanced_frs_2024_25) for it on the publisher's compatibility claim. UK absolute poverty rates rise: in 2026-27 on the certified enhanced FRS, by about 4 points overall and about 7 points for children after housing costs. The bump also brings every policyengine-uk change since 2.90.2, including relative poverty measured on the median over individuals (policyengine-uk#1865).
diff --git a/pyproject.toml b/pyproject.toml
@@ -42,12 +42,12 @@ graph = [
 models = [
     "policyengine-core==3.32.5",
     "policyengine-us==2.2.1",
-    "policyengine-uk==2.90.2",
+    "policyengine-uk==2.102.3",
     "spm-calculator==1.0.0",
 ]
 uk = [
     "policyengine-core==3.32.5",
-    "policyengine-uk==2.90.2",
+    "policyengine-uk==2.102.3",
 ]
 us = [
     "policyengine-core==3.32.5",
@@ -71,7 +71,7 @@ dev = [
     "hypothesis>=6.100.0",
     "policyengine-core==3.32.5",
     "policyengine-us==2.2.1",
-    "policyengine-uk==2.90.2",
+    "policyengine-uk==2.102.3",
     "spm-calculator==1.0.0",
 ]
 

diff --git a/src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json b/src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@
         "built_with_model_git_sha": "12a1e028afeef08d8b2d74ee03fd9de3a78b2dd3",
         "built_with_model_version": "2.89.2",
         "certified_by": "policyengine.py bundle certification",
-        "certified_for_model_version": "2.90.2",
+        "certified_for_model_version": "2.102.3",
         "compatibility_basis": "legacy_compatible_model_package",
         "data_build_fingerprint": "sha256:6bfff835b504094c05342d2b4d770d2d94c8c1adcb15c4468931f53b21a89ea9",
         "data_build_id": "policyengine-uk-data-1.56.16"
@@ -41,7 +41,7 @@
       "data_package": {
         "name": "policyengine-uk-data",
         "release_manifest_path": "releases/1.56.16/release_manifest.json",
-        "release_manifest_revision": "2966541fca275ab5ccb6cfb659b010b1db37ad49",
+        "release_manifest_revision": "78788372fec47fc8df835bd32307ef61eaed83c2",
         "repo_id": "policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private",
         "repo_type": "model",
         "version": "1.56.16"
@@ -95,19 +95,19 @@
       "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@1.56.16",
       "model_package": {
         "name": "policyengine-uk",
-        "sha256": "f100ef97e20b29b84138078f1dbc5b83f8857e6bc74b745fc6abef7ea1eeadf2",
-        "version": "2.90.2",
-        "wheel_url": "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/ec/da/658bff2df6094bd7bf2b0f561ff60fd41508adbd0a3af29b4553c83bc678/policyengine_uk-2.90.2-py3-none-any.whl"
+        "sha256": "f02a76712a3edf9983c713c1db42e9653a6e974e4ce335dd4b5676bbc2bcd636",
+        "version": "2.102.3",
+        "wheel_url": "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/37/e6/e8d9069d498f1510a1380f24a78e957902d01f00b10248c146d6710d5b37/policyengine_uk-2.102.3-py3-none-any.whl"
       },
       "policyengine_version": "6.1.2",
       "region_datasets": {
         "national": {
           "path_template": "enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5"
         }
       },
-      "release_manifest_uri": "https://huggingface.co/policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/resolve/2966541fca275ab5ccb6cfb659b010b1db37ad49/releases/1.56.16/release_manifest.json",
+      "release_manifest_uri": "https://huggingface.co/policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/resolve/78788372fec47fc8df835bd32307ef61eaed83c2/releases/1.56.16/release_manifest.json",
       "schema_version": 1,
-      "source_manifest_uri": "hf://model/policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private@2966541fca275ab5ccb6cfb659b010b1db37ad49/releases/1.56.16/release_manifest.json",
+      "source_manifest_uri": "hf://model/policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private@78788372fec47fc8df835bd32307ef61eaed83c2/releases/1.56.16/release_manifest.json",
       "version": "policyengine-uk-data-1.56.16"
     },
     "us": {
@@ -305,10 +305,10 @@
     "policyengine-uk": {
       "country": "uk",
       "import_name": "policyengine_uk",
-      "install_requirement": "policyengine-uk==2.90.2",
+      "install_requirement": "policyengine-uk==2.102.3",
       "name": "policyengine-uk",
       "role": "country_model",
-      "version": "2.90.2"
+      "version": "2.102.3"
     },
     "policyengine-us": {
       "country": "us",

diff --git a/src/policyengine/data/bundle/uk.trace.tro.jsonld b/src/policyengine/data/bundle/uk.trace.tro.jsonld
@@ -45,7 +45,7 @@
               "trov:hasArtifact": {
                 "@id": "composition/1/artifact/data_release_manifest"
               },
-              "trov:hasLocation": "https://huggingface.co/policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/resolve/2966541fca275ab5ccb6cfb659b010b1db37ad49/releases/1.56.16/release_manifest.json"
+              "trov:hasLocation": "https://huggingface.co/policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/resolve/78788372fec47fc8df835bd32307ef61eaed83c2/releases/1.56.16/release_manifest.json"
             },
             {
               "@id": "arrangement/1/location/dataset",
@@ -61,7 +61,7 @@
               "trov:hasArtifact": {
                 "@id": "composition/1/artifact/model_wheel"
               },
-              "trov:hasLocation": "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/ec/da/658bff2df6094bd7bf2b0f561ff60fd41508adbd0a3af29b4553c83bc678/policyengine_uk-2.90.2-py3-none-any.whl"
+              "trov:hasLocation": "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/37/e6/e8d9069d498f1510a1380f24a78e957902d01f00b10248c146d6710d5b37/policyengine_uk-2.102.3-py3-none-any.whl"
             }
           ]
         }
@@ -75,14 +75,14 @@
             "@type": "trov:ResearchArtifact",
             "schema:name": "policyengine.py bundle manifest for uk",
             "trov:mimeType": "application/json",
-            "trov:sha256": "d7e6308efd9e711f238a4d4a3aa8bc07e0962f3f4c9596e9ad6490ff5c63e45a"
+            "trov:sha256": "330df26dd0b1b98cf70871b5cf35de1cbe71e42905f07fd1b3d1b2495bbce121"
           },
           {
             "@id": "composition/1/artifact/data_release_manifest",
             "@type": "trov:ResearchArtifact",
             "schema:name": "policyengine-uk-data release manifest 1.56.16",
             "trov:mimeType": "application/json",
-            "trov:sha256": "9bfccac472d74b044596205ee153b0c81fcd8d93e84f5820c7081e30f2cab0c5"
+            "trov:sha256": "cb61e3d897fbfa0cc079edc140aebc8947b1a685f581a420de91170ce2686155"
           },
           {
             "@id": "composition/1/artifact/dataset",
@@ -94,15 +94,15 @@
           {
             "@id": "composition/1/artifact/model_wheel",
             "@type": "trov:ResearchArtifact",
-            "schema:name": "policyengine-uk==2.90.2 wheel",
+            "schema:name": "policyengine-uk==2.102.3 wheel",
             "trov:mimeType": "application/zip",
-            "trov:sha256": "f100ef97e20b29b84138078f1dbc5b83f8857e6bc74b745fc6abef7ea1eeadf2"
+            "trov:sha256": "f02a76712a3edf9983c713c1db42e9653a6e974e4ce335dd4b5676bbc2bcd636"
           }
         ],
         "trov:hasFingerprint": {
           "@id": "composition/1/fingerprint",
           "@type": "trov:CompositionFingerprint",
-          "trov:sha256": "d79d22d81bd1d48bfaf836ab3c03ba79721e77594b9695929cb163b872f00373"
+          "trov:sha256": "5bd332aeeddba294dbfae7c3640cc6dbee25a022ec5766876b3f706818ca1415"
         }
       },
       "trov:hasPerformance": {
@@ -111,12 +111,12 @@
         "pe:builtWithModelGitSha": "12a1e028afeef08d8b2d74ee03fd9de3a78b2dd3",
         "pe:builtWithModelVersion": "2.89.2",
         "pe:certifiedBy": "policyengine.py bundle certification",
-        "pe:certifiedForModelVersion": "2.90.2",
+        "pe:certifiedForModelVersion": "2.102.3",
         "pe:compatibilityBasis": "legacy_compatible_model_package",
         "pe:dataBuildFingerprint": "sha256:6bfff835b504094c05342d2b4d770d2d94c8c1adcb15c4468931f53b21a89ea9",
         "pe:dataBuildId": "policyengine-uk-data-1.56.16",
         "pe:emittedIn": "repository-bundle",
-        "rdfs:comment": "Certification of build policyengine-uk-data-1.56.16 for policyengine-uk 2.90.2.",
+        "rdfs:comment": "Certification of build policyengine-uk-data-1.56.16 for policyengine-uk 2.102.3.",
         "trov:accessedArrangement": {
           "@id": "arrangement/1"
         },

diff --git a/src/policyengine/data/bundle/us.trace.tro.jsonld b/src/policyengine/data/bundle/us.trace.tro.jsonld
@@ -74,7 +74,7 @@
             "@type": "trov:ResearchArtifact",
             "schema:name": "policyengine.py bundle manifest for us",
             "trov:mimeType": "application/json",
-            "trov:sha256": "d7e6308efd9e711f238a4d4a3aa8bc07e0962f3f4c9596e9ad6490ff5c63e45a"
+            "trov:sha256": "330df26dd0b1b98cf70871b5cf35de1cbe71e42905f07fd1b3d1b2495bbce121"
           },
           {
             "@id": "composition/1/artifact/data_release_manifest",
@@ -101,7 +101,7 @@
         "trov:hasFingerprint": {
           "@id": "composition/1/fingerprint",
           "@type": "trov:CompositionFingerprint",
-          "trov:sha256": "75052afc5a871ead813d47d3a5dd61b7085e963a164e7047870e705919420192"
+          "trov:sha256": "ccffcc3565d3989d61421729259834e0ff3c990151e533d306a5bce361fb9a60"
         }
       },
       "trov:hasPerformance": {

diff --git a/tests/fixtures/household_calculator_snapshots/uk_model_surface.json b/tests/fixtures/household_calculator_snapshots/uk_model_surface.json
@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@
   "has_income_tax": true,
   "has_region_registry": true,
   "model_package_name": "policyengine-uk",
-  "num_parameters_bucketed_100s": 23,
-  "num_variables_bucketed_100s": 8,
+  "num_parameters_bucketed_100s": 26,
+  "num_variables_bucketed_100s": 9,
   "region_registry_country": "uk"
 }
diff --git a/tests/test_models.py b/tests/test_models.py
@@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ def test_has_release_manifest_metadata(self):
         assert uk_latest.release_manifest is not None
         assert uk_latest.release_manifest.country_id == "uk"
         assert uk_latest.model_package.name == "policyengine-uk"
-        assert uk_latest.model_package.version == "2.90.2"
+        assert uk_latest.model_package.version == "2.102.3"
         assert uk_latest.data_package.name == "policyengine-uk-data"
         assert uk_latest.data_package.version == "1.56.16"
         assert (

diff --git a/tests/test_release_manifests.py b/tests/test_release_manifests.py
@@ -72,11 +72,11 @@
     "hf://policyengine/populace-us/populace_us_2024_acs_local.h5"
     f"@{US_LOCAL_AREA_RELEASE_ID}"
 )
-UK_MODEL_VERSION = "2.90.2"
+UK_MODEL_VERSION = "2.102.3"
 UK_BUILT_WITH_MODEL_VERSION = "2.89.2"
 UK_DATA_RELEASE_VERSION = "1.56.16"
 UK_DATA_RELEASE_ID = "policyengine-uk-data-1.56.16"
-UK_DATA_RELEASE_REVISION = "2966541fca275ab5ccb6cfb659b010b1db37ad49"
+UK_DATA_RELEASE_REVISION = "78788372fec47fc8df835bd32307ef61eaed83c2"
 UK_DATA_RELEASE_PATH = "releases/1.56.16/release_manifest.json"
 # The prior certified default, kept resolvable via dataset_overlays.
 UK_POPULACE_RELEASE_ID = "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z"

diff --git a/uv.lock b/uv.lock
Original file line number	Diff line number	Diff line change
		@@ -0,0 +1 @@
		Bump policyengine-uk to 2.102.3, which rebases the absolute poverty line to HBAI's FYE 2025 reference year (431.69 BHC / 373.89 AHC a week at FYE 2025, as DWP has reported it since March 2026), and certify the UK data release `policyengine-uk-data-1.56.16` (enhanced_frs_2024_25) for it on the publisher's compatibility claim. UK absolute poverty rates rise: in 2026-27 on the certified enhanced FRS, by about 4 points overall and about 7 points for children after housing costs. The bump also brings every policyengine-uk change since 2.90.2, including relative poverty measured on the median over individuals (policyengine-uk#1865).