Add WIC calibration targets

changelog.d/845.added.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Add national WIC calibration targets for FY 2024 total program costs and average monthly participation.

policyengine_us_data/calibration/target_config.yaml

@@ -151,6 +151,8 @@ include:
     geo_level: national
   - variable: unemployment_compensation
     geo_level: national
+  - variable: wic
+    geo_level: national
 
   # === NATIONAL — retirement contribution targets ===
   - variable: traditional_ira_contributions
@@ -232,6 +234,11 @@ include:
     geo_level: national
     domain_variable: ssn_card_type
 
+  # === NATIONAL — WIC participation count target ===
+  - variable: person_count
+    geo_level: national
+    domain_variable: wic
+
   # === NATIONAL — SOI deduction totals (non-reform) ===
   - variable: medical_expense_deduction
     geo_level: national

policyengine_us_data/db/etl_national_targets.py

@@ -23,6 +23,11 @@
 )
 
 
+WIC_NATIONAL_ANNUAL_SUMMARY_SOURCE = (
+    "https://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/wisummary-4.xlsx"
+)
+
+
 def extract_national_targets(year: int = DEFAULT_YEAR):
     """
     Extract national calibration targets from various sources.
@@ -196,6 +201,13 @@ def extract_national_targets(year: int = DEFAULT_YEAR):
             "notes": "Housing subsidies",
             "year": 2024,
         },
+        {
+            "variable": "wic",
+            "value": 7_332_200_000,
+            "source": WIC_NATIONAL_ANNUAL_SUMMARY_SOURCE,
+            "notes": "FY 2024 WIC total costs; National Level Annual Summary workbook, sheet 'Annual Participation and costs', FY 2024 row; food costs are $4.9115B",
+            "year": 2024,
+        },
         {
             "variable": "real_estate_taxes",
             "value": 500e9,
@@ -316,6 +328,13 @@ def extract_national_targets(year: int = DEFAULT_YEAR):
             "notes": "ACA Premium Tax Credit recipients",
             "year": 2024,
         },
+        {
+            "constraint_variable": "wic",
+            "person_count": 6_704_000,
+            "source": WIC_NATIONAL_ANNUAL_SUMMARY_SOURCE,
+            "notes": "FY 2024 WIC average monthly participation; National Level Annual Summary workbook, sheet 'Annual Participation and costs', FY 2024 row",
+            "year": 2024,
+        },
         {
             "constraint_variable": "spm_unit_energy_subsidy_reported",
             "target_variable": "household_count",
@@ -738,6 +757,10 @@ def load_national_targets(
                 stratum_notes = "National ACA Premium Tax Credit Recipients"
                 constraint_operation = ">"
                 constraint_value = "0"
+            elif constraint_var == "wic":
+                stratum_notes = "National WIC Recipients"
+                constraint_operation = ">"
+                constraint_value = "0"
             elif constraint_var == "spm_unit_energy_subsidy_reported":
                 stratum_notes = "National LIHEAP Recipient Households"
                 constraint_operation = ">"

tests/unit/calibration/test_target_config.py

@@ -245,6 +245,24 @@ def test_training_config_includes_tanf_state_and_national_count_targets(self):
             "domain_variable": "tanf",
         } in include_rules
 
+    def test_training_config_includes_wic_national_targets(self):
+        config = load_target_config(
+            str(
+                Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3]
+                / "policyengine_us_data"
+                / "calibration"
+                / "target_config.yaml"
+            )
+        )
+
+        include_rules = config["include"]
+        assert {"variable": "wic", "geo_level": "national"} in include_rules
+        assert {
+            "variable": "person_count",
+            "geo_level": "national",
+            "domain_variable": "wic",
+        } in include_rules
+
 
 class TestCalibrationPackageRoundTrip:
     def test_round_trip(self, sample_targets, tmp_path):

tests/unit/test_etl_national_targets.py

@@ -199,3 +199,83 @@ def test_load_national_targets_supports_liheap_household_counts(tmp_path, monkey
         ).first()
         assert liheap_target is not None
         assert liheap_target.value == 5_876_646
+
+
+def test_load_national_targets_supports_wic_targets(tmp_path, monkeypatch):
+    calibration_dir = tmp_path / "calibration"
+    calibration_dir.mkdir()
+    db_uri = f"sqlite:///{calibration_dir / 'policy_data.db'}"
+    engine = create_database(db_uri)
+
+    with Session(engine) as session:
+        national = _make_stratum(session, notes="United States")
+        national_id = national.stratum_id
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(
+        "policyengine_us_data.db.etl_national_targets.STORAGE_FOLDER",
+        tmp_path,
+    )
+
+    direct_targets_df = pd.DataFrame(
+        [
+            {
+                "variable": "wic",
+                "value": 7_332_200_000,
+                "source": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/wisummary-4.xlsx",
+                "notes": "FY 2024 WIC total costs from FNS annual summary",
+                "year": 2024,
+            }
+        ]
+    )
+    conditional_targets = [
+        {
+            "constraint_variable": "wic",
+            "person_count": 6_704_000,
+            "source": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/wisummary-4.xlsx",
+            "notes": "FY 2024 WIC average monthly participation",
+            "year": 2024,
+        }
+    ]
+
+    load_national_targets(
+        direct_targets_df=direct_targets_df,
+        tax_filer_df=pd.DataFrame(),
+        tax_expenditure_df=pd.DataFrame(),
+        conditional_targets=conditional_targets,
+    )
+
+    with Session(engine) as session:
+        wic_total_target = session.exec(
+            select(Target).where(
+                Target.stratum_id == national_id,
+                Target.variable == "wic",
+                Target.period == 2024,
+            )
+        ).first()
+        assert wic_total_target is not None
+        assert wic_total_target.value == 7_332_200_000
+
+        wic_stratum = session.exec(
+            select(Stratum).where(Stratum.notes == "National WIC Recipients")
+        ).first()
+        assert wic_stratum is not None
+
+        constraints = {
+            (
+                constraint.constraint_variable,
+                constraint.operation,
+                constraint.value,
+            )
+            for constraint in wic_stratum.constraints_rel
+        }
+        assert ("wic", ">", "0") in constraints
+
+        wic_count_target = session.exec(
+            select(Target).where(
+                Target.stratum_id == wic_stratum.stratum_id,
+                Target.variable == "person_count",
+                Target.period == 2024,
+            )
+        ).first()
+        assert wic_count_target is not None
+        assert wic_count_target.value == 6_704_000