failure-events.rst#14
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| P_{inf,year} = 1 - (1 - p_{inf,day,normal})^{365-n_{fail}} \cdot (1 - p_{inf,day,failure})^{n_{fail}} |
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As written, the annual aggregation applies the full-day failure probability for every failure day, so the failure_duration_minutes / 1440 fraction defined just above has no effect in this per-year formula. Following this spec would treat a 30-minute event with n_fail = 1 as a 24-hour failure day and overstate annual risk; the failure-day exponent should use the mixed daily probability (or another term that incorporates x_fail).
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