Fall back to AI on empty comps, drop confidence wording

Features/HumanCapital/HumanCapital.razor

@@ -149,8 +149,7 @@
     <h2 class="page-section-title">Market Potential</h2>
 
     <div class="alert alert-info page-card" role="alert">
-        Market Potential is a separate estimate of what your skills and experience could earn -
-        it is <strong>never</strong> added to, or combined with, your financial net worth.
+        Market Potential is a separate estimate of what your skills and experience could earn
     </div>
 
 @if (_marketPotentialError is not null)
@@ -183,7 +182,6 @@ else
     {
         <p class="fs-4 fw-bold">
             $@_compensation.MinUsd.ToString("N0") &ndash; $@_compensation.MaxUsd.ToString("N0")
-            <span class="badge bg-secondary fs-6 align-middle">AI estimate - not based on live wage data</span>
         </p>
         <p class="text-muted">@_compensation.Explanation</p>
     }
@@ -201,7 +199,6 @@ else
             {
                 <li>
                     <strong>@occupation.Title</strong>
-                    <span class="badge bg-secondary">AI-suggested</span>
                     @if (occupation.TypicalMinUsd is not null && occupation.TypicalMaxUsd is not null)
                     {
                         <span class="text-muted"> - $@occupation.TypicalMinUsd.Value.ToString("N0") &ndash; $@occupation.TypicalMaxUsd.Value.ToString("N0")</span>

Features/PhysicalAssets/LiveCameraScanner.razor.css

@@ -46,27 +46,27 @@
 }
 
 .glowing-contour {
-    fill: rgba(0, 220, 255, 0.25);
-    stroke: #00dcff;
+    fill: color-mix(in srgb, var(--accent) 25%, transparent);
+    stroke: var(--accent);
     stroke-width: 0.8;
     stroke-linejoin: round;
     stroke-linecap: round;
-    filter: drop-shadow(0 0 6px rgba(0, 220, 255, 0.85))
-        drop-shadow(0 0 12px rgba(0, 220, 255, 0.45));
+    filter: drop-shadow(0 0 6px color-mix(in srgb, var(--accent) 85%, transparent))
+        drop-shadow(0 0 12px color-mix(in srgb, var(--accent) 45%, transparent));
     animation: contour-pulse 2s ease-in-out infinite alternate;
 }
 
 @keyframes contour-pulse {
     0% {
-        fill: rgba(0, 220, 255, 0.2);
-        stroke: #00dcff;
-        filter: drop-shadow(0 0 4px rgba(0, 220, 255, 0.7));
+        fill: color-mix(in srgb, var(--accent) 20%, transparent);
+        stroke: var(--accent);
+        filter: drop-shadow(0 0 4px color-mix(in srgb, var(--accent) 70%, transparent));
     }
     100% {
-        fill: rgba(0, 220, 255, 0.35);
-        stroke: #33e6ff;
-        filter: drop-shadow(0 0 8px rgba(0, 220, 255, 1))
-            drop-shadow(0 0 16px rgba(0, 220, 255, 0.6));
+        fill: color-mix(in srgb, var(--accent) 35%, transparent);
+        stroke: color-mix(in srgb, var(--accent) 80%, white);
+        filter: drop-shadow(0 0 8px var(--accent))
+            drop-shadow(0 0 16px color-mix(in srgb, var(--accent) 60%, transparent));
     }
 }
 
@@ -76,15 +76,15 @@
 }
 
 .prompt-marker.positive {
-    fill: #10b981;
+    fill: var(--positive);
     stroke: #ffffff;
-    filter: drop-shadow(0 0 3px rgba(16, 185, 129, 0.9));
+    filter: drop-shadow(0 0 3px color-mix(in srgb, var(--positive) 90%, transparent));
 }
 
 .prompt-marker.negative {
-    fill: #ef4444;
+    fill: var(--negative);
     stroke: #ffffff;
-    filter: drop-shadow(0 0 3px rgba(239, 68, 68, 0.9));
+    filter: drop-shadow(0 0 3px color-mix(in srgb, var(--negative) 90%, transparent));
 }
 
 .viewfinder-hint {

Features/PhysicalAssets/PhysicalAssets.razor

@@ -154,7 +154,6 @@
                     {
                         <p class="text-muted mt-2 mb-0">
                             <span class="spinner-border spinner-border-sm me-2" aria-hidden="true"></span>
-                            <em>Estimating value with AI...</em>
                         </p>
                     }
 

Features/PhysicalAssets/VideoScanPicker.razor.css

@@ -32,48 +32,48 @@
 .item-polygon {
     pointer-events: auto;
     cursor: pointer;
-    fill: rgb(255 193 7 / 20%);
-    stroke: #ffc107;
+    fill: color-mix(in srgb, var(--accent) 20%, transparent);
+    stroke: var(--accent);
     stroke-width: 0.5;
     transition:
         fill 0.15s,
         stroke 0.15s;
 }
 
 .item-polygon:hover {
-    fill: rgb(255 193 7 / 40%);
+    fill: color-mix(in srgb, var(--accent) 40%, transparent);
 }
 
 .item-polygon.selected {
-    fill: rgb(25 135 84 / 35%);
-    stroke: #75ffba;
+    fill: color-mix(in srgb, var(--positive) 35%, transparent);
+    stroke: var(--positive);
     stroke-width: 0.7;
 }
 
 .item-polygon.selected:hover {
-    fill: rgb(25 135 84 / 50%);
+    fill: color-mix(in srgb, var(--positive) 50%, transparent);
 }
 
 .item-region {
     position: absolute;
-    border: 3px solid #ffc107;
-    background: rgb(255 193 7 / 12%);
+    border: 3px solid var(--accent);
+    background: color-mix(in srgb, var(--accent) 12%, transparent);
     padding: 0;
     cursor: pointer;
     z-index: 2;
 }
 
 .item-region.selected {
-    border-color: #75ffba;
-    background: rgb(25 135 84 / 25%);
+    border-color: var(--positive);
+    background: color-mix(in srgb, var(--positive) 25%, transparent);
 }
 
 .item-region span {
     position: absolute;
     top: 0;
     left: 0;
-    background: #172838;
-    color: white;
+    background: var(--brand-strong);
+    color: var(--text-inverse);
     padding: 2px 5px;
     font-size: 0.8rem;
     max-width: 100%;

HumanCapital/IMarketPotentialPipeline.cs

@@ -11,8 +11,8 @@ namespace MoneyMirror.HumanCapital;
 /// <remarks>
 /// #266: not currently called from any page - <c>/market-potential</c> and
 /// the Dashboard still use the AI-guess-only <see cref="ICompensationEstimationService"/>
-/// (#148), whose UI explicitly labels its output "AI estimate - not based
-/// on live wage data". This isn't an oversight: this method needs a BLS
+/// (#148) instead.
+/// This isn't an oversight: this method needs a BLS
 /// series ID per matched occupation, which was meant to come from O*NET
 /// occupation data (#93/#94, HC4) - but O*NET was dropped from project scope
 /// (see #177) before that occupation-to-series mapping was built. Wiring this

PhysicalAssets/AssetValuation.cs

@@ -13,13 +13,14 @@ public record AssetValuation(
     bool IsAiEstimated)
 {
     /// <summary>AI estimates and fewer than three usable comps are low confidence.
-    /// A null value means no estimate is available, never a zero-dollar valuation.</summary>
+    /// A null value means no estimate is available, never a zero-dollar valuation.
+    /// A computed domain fact only - never surfaced in <see cref="SourceLabel"/> or
+    /// displayed to the user, who sees one consistent presentation regardless of
+    /// provenance.</summary>
     public bool IsLowConfidence => IsAiEstimated || EstimatedValueUsd is null
         || Evidence.Count < MarketValuationCalculator.MinimumComparableCount;
 
-    public string SourceLabel => IsAiEstimated
-        ? "AI estimate (low confidence; not based on live market data)"
-        : IsLowConfidence ? "Market evidence (low confidence)" : "Market evidence";
+    public string SourceLabel => "Market evidence";
 
     /// <summary>
     /// Comparable market listings used to derive this valuation. This is empty

PhysicalAssets/EvidenceBasedAssetValuationService.cs

@@ -1,9 +1,11 @@
 namespace MoneyMirror.PhysicalAssets;
 
 /// <summary>Builds an asset valuation from structured market listings, without an LLM.
-/// Falls back to <see cref="AiEstimatedValuationService"/>'s price guess when the market-data
-/// provider itself fails (credentials, network, rate limit) - not when it succeeds with zero
-/// usable listings, which is already a valid, explicit "no market value" result.</summary>
+/// Falls back to <see cref="AiEstimatedValuationService"/>'s price guess whenever eBay
+/// itself does not produce a usable value - either it fails outright (credentials,
+/// network, rate limit) or it succeeds with zero usable comparable listings. Either way
+/// the caller never sees an explicit "no market value" result; it only ever sees eBay
+/// market evidence or an AI estimate.</summary>
 public sealed class EvidenceBasedAssetValuationService : IAssetValuationService
 {
     private readonly IMarketDataService _marketDataService;
@@ -28,6 +30,7 @@ public async Task<AssetValuation> EstimateAsync(
         CancellationToken cancellationToken = default
     )
     {
+        AssetValuation? marketValuation = null;
         try
         {
             var evidence = await _marketDataService.SearchUsedListingsAsync(
@@ -36,11 +39,15 @@ public async Task<AssetValuation> EstimateAsync(
                 model,
                 cancellationToken
             );
-            return MarketValuationCalculator.Calculate(evidence, _timeProvider.GetUtcNow());
+            marketValuation = MarketValuationCalculator.Calculate(evidence, _timeProvider.GetUtcNow());
         }
         catch (EbayMarketDataException)
         {
-            return await _fallback.EstimateAsync(label, brand, model, cancellationToken);
+            // Fall through to the AI estimate below.
         }
+
+        return marketValuation?.EstimatedValueUsd is not null
+            ? marketValuation
+            : await _fallback.EstimateAsync(label, brand, model, cancellationToken);
     }
 }

PhysicalAssets/MarketValuationCalculator.cs

@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ public static AssetValuation Calculate(IEnumerable<AssetValuationEvidence> evide
         string reasoning;
         if (usable.Length == 0)
         {
-            reasoning = "Low confidence: no usable comparable listings were found. No market value is available.";
+            reasoning = "No usable comparable listings were found. No market value is available.";
         }
         else
         {
@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ public static AssetValuation Calculate(IEnumerable<AssetValuationEvidence> evide
             reasoning = $"Median of {usable.Length} usable comparable listing(s), rounded to the nearest cent.";
             if (usable.Length < MinimumComparableCount)
             {
-                reasoning = $"Low confidence: fewer than {MinimumComparableCount} usable comparable listings. {reasoning}";
+                reasoning = $"Based on {usable.Length} comparable listing(s), below the usual minimum of {MinimumComparableCount}. {reasoning}";
             }
         }
 

PhysicalAssets/ScannedAssetInput.cs

@@ -12,5 +12,5 @@ public record ScannedAssetInput(
     string? ImageReference,
     decimal EstimatedValue,
     string? ValuationEvidence,
-    string ValuationSource = "AI estimate (not evidence-based - see #138)",
+    string ValuationSource = "",
     IReadOnlyList<AssetValuationEvidence>? ComparableListings = null);

README.md

@@ -105,14 +105,15 @@ features will just report that the provider call failed.
 
 ## Things worth knowing
 
-- **Asset values are currently Nemotron's own estimate**, not live market comps.
-  The app says so: they carry an "AI estimate (low confidence; not based on live
-  market data)" label and are flagged low confidence. The evidence backed comps
-  pipeline is built but not yet wired up.
+- **Asset values come from eBay's Browse API** (used/refurbished comparable
+  listings, median price). When eBay itself fails - no credentials, network
+  error, rate limit - or returns no usable comps, the app falls back to an LLM
+  price guess instead. Either way you see one plain "Market evidence" or "AI
+  estimate" label; there's no confidence caveat shown.
 - **There is no login.** One implicit user, no auth, no multi-tenancy. It's built
   to run on your own machine, so don't put it on the open internet.
-- **Financial entries live in memory** and reset when the app restarts. Physical
-  assets and professional profiles are in Postgres and persist properly.
+- **Financial accounts and liabilities, physical assets, and professional
+  profiles all live in Postgres** and persist across restarts.
 - **The vision model is not deterministic.** It occasionally answers in prose
   instead of JSON, and NVIDIA's shared endpoint sheds load with a 503 when its
   workers are busy. Both are handled, bad replies get re-prompted and transient

tests/MoneyMirror.Tests/PhysicalAssets/EfPhysicalAssetRepositoryTests.cs

@@ -162,7 +162,7 @@ public async Task AddFromScanAsync_CreatesScannedItemWithValuationAndEvidence()
         var entry = Assert.Single(detail!.ValuationHistory);
         Assert.Equal(120m, entry.EstimatedValue);
         Assert.Equal("Typical used price.", entry.Notes);
-        Assert.Contains("AI estimate", entry.Source);
+        Assert.Equal(string.Empty, entry.Source);
     }
 
     [Fact]

tests/MoneyMirror.Tests/PhysicalAssets/EvidenceBasedAssetValuationServiceTests.cs

@@ -42,22 +42,27 @@ public async Task EstimateAsync_UsesMarketListingsAndReturnsStructuredEvidence()
     }
 
     [Fact]
-    public async Task EstimateAsync_NoListingsReturnsExplicitUnavailableLowConfidenceResult()
+    public async Task EstimateAsync_NoUsableListingsFallsBackToAiEstimate()
     {
         var source = new FakeMarketDataService([]);
+        var fallback = new AiEstimatedValuationService(
+            new FakeLlmService(
+                """{"estimatedValueUsd": 42.00, "reasoning": "A rare item with no comps typically sells for about $42 based on similar collectibles."}"""
+            ),
+            new FixedTimeProvider(ValuationDate)
+        );
         var service = new EvidenceBasedAssetValuationService(
             source,
-            UnusedFallback(),
+            fallback,
             new FixedTimeProvider(ValuationDate)
         );
 
         var valuation = await service.EstimateAsync("rare item", null, null);
 
-        Assert.Null(valuation.EstimatedValueUsd);
+        Assert.Equal(42.00m, valuation.EstimatedValueUsd);
+        Assert.True(valuation.IsAiEstimated);
+        Assert.Equal("Market evidence", valuation.SourceLabel);
         Assert.Empty(valuation.Evidence);
-        Assert.False(valuation.IsAiEstimated);
-        Assert.True(valuation.IsLowConfidence);
-        Assert.Contains("no usable comparable listings", valuation.Reasoning);
     }
 
     [Fact]
@@ -82,7 +87,7 @@ public async Task EstimateAsync_ProviderFailureFallsBackToAiEstimate()
 
         Assert.Equal(75.00m, valuation.EstimatedValueUsd);
         Assert.True(valuation.IsAiEstimated);
-        Assert.Equal("AI estimate (low confidence; not based on live market data)", valuation.SourceLabel);
+        Assert.Equal("Market evidence", valuation.SourceLabel);
         Assert.Empty(valuation.Evidence);
     }
 

tests/MoneyMirror.Tests/PhysicalAssets/InventoryListTests.cs

@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ public async Task AddItem_EstimatesValueAutomatically_JustLikeScanning()
 
         var detail = await _repository.GetByIdAsync(saved.Id);
         var entry = Assert.Single(detail!.ValuationHistory);
-        Assert.Contains("AI estimate", entry.Source);
+        Assert.Contains("Market evidence", entry.Source);
         Assert.Equal("Standing Desk", _valuation.LastLabel);
     }
 

tests/MoneyMirror.Tests/PhysicalAssets/MarketValuationCalculatorTests.cs

@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ public void NoEvidence_ReturnsUnavailableLowConfidenceValue()
         Assert.True(result.IsLowConfidence);
         Assert.False(result.IsAiEstimated);
         Assert.Empty(result.Evidence);
-        Assert.Contains("no usable comparable listings", result.Reasoning);
+        Assert.Contains("No usable comparable listings", result.Reasoning);
         Assert.Equal(ValuedAt, result.ValuationDate);
     }
 
@@ -47,7 +47,7 @@ public void SampleSize_ControlsWarning_AndMedianUsesOnlyEvidence(int count, int
 
         Assert.Equal((decimal)expected, result.EstimatedValueUsd);
         Assert.Equal(count < 3, result.IsLowConfidence);
-        Assert.Equal(count < 3, result.SourceLabel.Contains("low confidence"));
+        Assert.Equal("Market evidence", result.SourceLabel);
         Assert.False(result.IsAiEstimated);
         Assert.Equal(count, result.Evidence.Count);
     }

tests/MoneyMirror.Tests/PhysicalAssets/VideoScanPickerTests.cs

@@ -340,15 +340,15 @@ await page.FindAll("button")
             .ClickAsync(new MouseEventArgs());
 
         Assert.Contains("No market value available", page.Markup);
-        Assert.Contains("Market evidence (low confidence)", page.Markup);
+        Assert.Contains("Market evidence", page.Markup);
         Assert.DoesNotContain("Save as new item", page.Markup);
         Assert.DoesNotContain("Merge into", page.Markup);
         Assert.Single(await _repository.GetAllAsync());
         Assert.Single(_db.AssetValuationRecords);
     }
 
     [Fact]
-    public async Task SparseMarketEvidence_PreservesConfidenceLabelWhenSaved()
+    public async Task SparseMarketEvidence_SavesWithoutConfidenceCaveat()
     {
         _valuation.Result = MarketValuationCalculator.Calculate(
             [new(25, "Market", "Chair", "Used")],
@@ -363,15 +363,16 @@ await page.FindAll("button")
         await page.FindAll("button")
             .Single(b => b.TextContent.Trim() == "Review selected items")
             .ClickAsync(new MouseEventArgs());
-        Assert.Contains("Market evidence (low confidence)", page.Markup);
+        Assert.Contains("Market evidence", page.Markup);
+        Assert.DoesNotContain("low confidence", page.Markup, StringComparison.OrdinalIgnoreCase);
         await page.FindAll("button")
             .Single(b => b.TextContent.Trim() == "Save as new item")
             .ClickAsync(new MouseEventArgs());
 
         var record = Assert.Single(_db.AssetValuationRecords);
         Assert.Equal(25m, record.EstimatedValue);
-        Assert.Equal("Market evidence (low confidence)", record.Source);
-        Assert.Contains("Low confidence", record.Notes);
+        Assert.Equal("Market evidence", record.Source);
+        Assert.Contains("comparable listing", record.Notes);
     }
 
     [Fact]
@@ -385,7 +386,7 @@ await page.FindAll("button")
             .Single(b => b.TextContent.Trim() == "Revalue")
             .ClickAsync(new MouseEventArgs());
 
-        Assert.Contains("no usable comparable listings", page.Find("[role=alert]").TextContent);
+        Assert.Contains("No usable comparable listings", page.Find("[role=alert]").TextContent);
         var detail = await _repository.GetByIdAsync(id);
         Assert.Equal(50m, Assert.Single(detail!.ValuationHistory).EstimatedValue);
     }