fix(pm): the enqueue bar names expected skips — a path-filtered job's skip is not a failure, and a check reports the skips outside the declared roster (#18357)

Fixes #18308

## What

`.claude/skills/pm-dispatch/SKILL.md` :629 read 「入队资格 = PR 上每一个 check
全绿,⛔ 不是 required 子集;required 集是队列强制的地板。」 — a bar no landing on this
repository can satisfy, because `skipped` is the ordinary conclusion of
a path-filtered job and the charter defined no state for it. Measured
over the ten most recent landed heads (below), every head carried 8–19
skipped check-runs beside its successes; the seat's landings read
「success = green, skipped = not failed」 by an unstated convention.

Two changes, both inside the claimed file surface:

1. **SKILL.md :629, re-keyed in place** (112 B → 119 B, ≤120 B; 812 →
812 lines; no issue number):

> `- 入队资格 = 每个 check 为 success 或预期 skip(名单:check-expected-skips.mjs),⛔
不是 required 子集。`

The bar now names the two states a check may be in — `success`, or an
expected skip — and points at the one machine-readable roster of
expected skips. The third clause of the old line (「required 集是队列强制的地板」)
did not fit the byte ceiling and is carried by AGENTS.md §7 (「the queue
enforces only the required set」); the ⛔ clause is kept verbatim.

2. **`scripts/pm/check-expected-skips.mjs`** (new; `package.json` gains
`check:pm-expected-skips` = its `--self-test`): given `--pr N` or
`--head SHA` (or a pre-fetched payload via `--check-runs-json FILE|-`),
it reads the head's check-runs and judges every `skipped` run against a
roster declared once, in the file, as data with a one-line reason per
row. Exit register: **0** every skip is in the roster · **4** a skip is
outside it (each named and classified: a filter miss, or a dependency
skip when the same check suite holds a failed run; a raw `matrix`
template in the name is read as "skipped before matrix expansion, i.e. a
job-level gate — never a workflow-level `paths:` filter, which creates
no check-run at all") · **3** NOT MEASURED (unresolvable sha, 404,
network, no check-runs on the head, or a check-run still running — the
skip set is not final). Report-only; the self-test pins structurally
that the file carries no `method:` key and imports no writer.

The roster is **tied to the workflows, not remembered**: `--self-test`
parses each row's workflow with the `yaml` package and asserts the job
exists, carries the row's name, carries an `if:`, that the `if:` spells
the declared gate (`needs.filter.outputs.X != 'false'`, the
`github.event.action` exclusion, or the label literal), and — for ci.yml
rows — that the `filter` job's output keeps its `|| 'true'` widening,
which is what makes "the merge-queue build runs it" true. The audit is
driven red in the self-test on a deleted, renamed, un-gated and re-gated
job, a lost widening and an unreadable workflow.

## The roster (11 names), measured over ten landed heads

| name | workflow › job | mechanism | over the ten heads |
|---|---|---|---|
| `Build Core` | ci.yml › build-core | `filter` output `core` said
false; REQUIRED context, judged on the queue build | skipped 10/10 |
| `Temporal Conformance (live PG + MySQL)` | ci.yml ›
temporal-conformance | same, REQUIRED context | skipped 10/10 |
| `Dogfood Regression Gate (${{ matrix.shard }}/3)` | ci.yml › dogfood |
same; raw matrix template = pre-expansion name (the aggregate `Dogfood
Regression Gate` runs `if: always()`, never skips) | skipped 10/10 |
| `Dogfood Verify CLI` | ci.yml › dogfood-verify | same | skipped 10/10
|
| `Test Core (${{ matrix.shard }}/6)` | ci.yml › test | `core` OR
`crosspkg` both false (scripts/** is in `crosspkg`, so scripts/pm heads
RUN it) | skipped 3/10 — only the .md-only heads |
| `Build Docs` | ci.yml › build-docs | `filter` output `docs` | skipped
10/10 |
| `Console Pin Gate` | ci.yml › console-pin | `filter` output `console`
| skipped 10/10 |
| `Check PR Size` | pr-automation.yml › pr-size | `if:` excludes
`labeled` / `unlabeled` / `edited` events; each event is its own run on
the same head | skipped 9/10, success beside it 10/10 |
| `Auto Label` | pr-automation.yml › auto-label | same | skipped 9/10,
success beside it 10/10 |
| `Check Changeset` | pr-automation.yml › changeset-check | `if:` skips
a PR carrying `skip-changeset` | skipped 10/10 (every head carried the
label), success beside it 9/10 (the run before the label) |
| `Packed-tarball smoke (opt-in)` | pack-smoke-optin.yml › pack-smoke |
opt-in by `needs:pack-smoke` | skipped 10/10 |

Never skipped on any of the ten heads (and carrying no `if:`): `Lint &
Repo Gates`, the four `Type Check ·` lanes, `TypeScript Type Check`,
`Test Core` and `Dogfood Regression Gate` (the aggregates), `Governed
Surface Queue Guard`, `filter`, the four claim/keyword guards, `Check
Documentation Links`, `Close issues referenced in other repositories`.
Workflows with a workflow-level `paths:` filter
(`half-state-patrol.yml`, `board-snapshot.yml`) produce no check-run at
all on a non-matching head — they are absent on 6 of the ten heads,
never `skipped` — which is the measured basis for the "a skipped
check-run is never a `paths:` filter" reading.

## Reverse verification (all at `7a1f99ea`)

| leg | result |
|---|---|
| `--head` on the ten landed heads #18298 · #18307 · #18311 · #18315 ·
#18316 · #18322 · #18326 · #18327 · #18328 · #18332 | **exit 0 on every
one**; accepted skips per head: 11 · 12 · 11 · 19 · 12 · 8 · 11 · 18 ·
18 · 11, every name in the roster; e.g. #18322 (the 8-skip head): `Build
Core`, `Build Docs`, `Check Changeset`, `Console Pin Gate`, `Dogfood
Regression Gate (…/3)`, `Dogfood Verify CLI`, `Packed-tarball smoke
(opt-in)`, `Temporal Conformance` |
| constructed fixture: the real #18322 payload with `Lint & Repo Gates`
mutated to `skipped` | **exit 4**, naming `Lint & Repo Gates (check
suite 94780297729)` and classifying it `filter-miss` |
| garbage sha `--head deadbeef…deadbeef` | **exit 3** — `NOT MEASURED —
HTTP 422 — the API cannot resolve that sha` |
| `--pr 18315` (the head is looked up through the proxy) | exit 0, `19
skipped check-run(s), every one in the roster`; `--pr 18308` (an issue
number, not a PR) → exit 3 (HTTP 404) |
| `--self-test` | 99 cases pass, offline (the roster's truth on the live
workflows and its audit driven red six ways; the judge on the measured
39-run #18315 head and on fixtures for 0 / 4 / 3; read classification;
argv; the real CLI on payload files incl. `--json`; the structural pins)
|
| SKILL.md ratchet | `wc -l` 812 → 812; :629 112 B → 119 B;
`check-skill-line-ratchet: SKILL.md is 812 lines (ceiling 812; headroom
0)` |

## Gates (local, at `7a1f99ea`)

`node scripts/pm/dispatch-gates.mjs --commands
.claude/skills/pm-dispatch/SKILL.md scripts/pm/check-expected-skips.mjs
package.json` derived 45 commands; all 45 were run with the exit
captured by redirect, and `--ran` reconciles: `✓ dispatch-gates --ran:
45 derived famil(ies) accounted for — 40 run, 5 NOT-MEASURED (5 DERIVED
from a recorded exit 3)`. The five NOT MEASURED are the `dist/`-reading
families on an unbuilt tree (`check:dts-closure`,
`check:dual-build-cjs-loads`, `check:lean-entry-closure`,
`check:sourcemap-no-sources-content`, `@objectstack/lint
check:doc-formula-expressions` — each prints `PREREQUISITE NOT MET`);
this diff touches no package, so no build closure is owed locally and CI
runs them built. The `pnpm check:pm-dispatch-gates` battery was not
derived, so it was not run.

Named gates, verdict lines quoted: `check-skill-line-ratchet: SKILL.md
is 812 lines (ceiling 812; headroom 0)` · `check-skill-id-lint: 27
file(s) clean` · `check-skill-frame-sync: the one declared copy of the
decision frame is internally coherent` · `check-self-test-wired: every
one of the 212 script(s) CI runs that ship a --self-test has that
self-test run by CI` (the new script is not in that population — see
Acceptance notes) · `check-nul-bytes: OK (scanned 8707 text file(s))` ·
`check-governed-prose: 2 instruction surface(s) name all 5 registered
governed surfaces` · ESLint (`--no-inline-config`) on the new file: exit
0 · `check-governed-merges.mjs --test
.claude/skills/pm-dispatch/SKILL.md`: **GOVERNED** (`.claude/**` ×1),
exit 3 as designed. `check-clause2-carriers.mjs --pair` is run once this
PR exists and its reading goes in the report comment.

## The one design choice, on the four axes: a roster declared in the
check vs. deriving expectedness live from the workflows' `paths` filters

- **实际业务需求** — the measured need is name-level: 31 landings this shift
and the ten heads above were judged by "is this skipped name one that
always skips?", and zero of them needed a diff-level answer. The
diff-level question ("should `Build Core` have run on THIS diff?") is
already answered for the required family by the platform: on
`merge_group` ci.yml's `filter` widens every output to `'true'` (the `||
'true'` half of the filter contract, now pinned by this check's
self-test), so the family runs on the merged tree before `main` moves. A
live derivation would answer a question nobody measured a need for, at
the cost below.
- **项目长远合理性** — a roster is a declaration that can rot; a live
derivation is a second evaluator of the platform's own semantics
(dorny/paths-filter's picomatch dialect, GitHub's expression language,
matrix name templates, per-event runs) that can drift from the real
evaluator. Both are drift; the roster's drift is made LOUD here (every
row is pinned to its live job, name, `if:` and gate spelling — a rename
or re-gate reddens CI), while an evaluator's drift is silent by
construction (a wrong glob yields a confident "expected").
Contract-first: the workflow file is the contract, and the roster is a
checked reading of it, not a copy of its path lists.
- **防 AI 写代码犯错** — the roster makes the wrong move structurally hard: a
new gated job's first skip is exit 4 until someone adds a row WITH its
mechanism, and a row that names a job the tree does not gate is red. A
live evaluator is where an AI would quietly mis-implement glob semantics
and produce the false green this tree refuses everywhere else (the
"could not read" ≠ "clean" class). The declared-vs-delivered line is
kept: the check advertises the name question only, and says so in its
header and report.
- **创业阶段不扩散需求** — the roster is ~11 rows of data and one audit; live
derivation is a YAML-expression evaluator with parity tests against
GitHub. No pull exists for the latter; if a rostered required job is
ever found skipped on a diff inside its filter, that measurement is the
card that would justify it.

**Recommendation: the roster in the check (implemented).** Should the
seat prefer live derivation, nothing here blocks it — the roster rows
already carry `workflow`, `job` and the gate's outputs, which is the
input a derivation would start from.

## Acceptance notes

- **Self-test wiring.** `check:pm-expected-skips` exists in
`package.json` (mirroring the report-only siblings), but no workflow
names it and lint.yml was outside this card's file surface, so
`check-self-test-wired` (correctly) does not count it and CI does not
run its 99 cases. The completion is one lint.yml step beside the other
`check:pm-*` steps (`run: pnpm check:pm-expected-skips`); left to the
seat — 承接者:the skills seat, on this PR or a sibling. Noted, not filed.
- **:629's floor clause dropped for the byte ceiling** (「required
集是队列强制的地板」); AGENTS.md §7 carries the fact. Noted, not filed.
- **Exit 4 judges skips only.** Other conclusions on the head
(`failure`, `cancelled`, `neutral`, …) are printed loudly under `other
conclusions` and do not move this check's exit; the bar's success half
is read from the same listing. A malformed `--head` (non-hex) is a usage
error (exit 2), a well-formed sha the API cannot resolve is exit 3.
Noted, not filed.
- **The card's five-name family was a subset.** The measured recurring
family is eleven names (six ci.yml `filter`-gated jobs the card did not
list, including two REQUIRED contexts); the card's citation of a
"platform-readings discipline (a skip is not a pass)" has no verbatim
carrier — the nearest lines are AGENTS.md §7 (「Green means the
gate-carrying jobs' conclusion is success」) and
`references/review-checklist.md:43`. Recorded in the report, no card.
- #18349 is not addressed here; it holds :513 / :523 of the same file
(region-level parallel). `origin/main` did not move under this branch
after cut (`ceb6b5fb`).

## 维护者速读(草稿)

**改了什么**:入队资格这一行改成「每个 check 为 success 或预期 skip」,并新增一个只读的检查脚本
`scripts/pm/check-expected-skips.mjs`:给它一个 PR 号或提交 SHA,它读出该提交上所有
check,凡是 `skipped` 的都对照脚本内声明的「预期 skip 名单」(11 个名字,每个带一句为什么会 skip
的机制),名单外的 skip 会被点名并退出码 4;读不到就退出码 3,绝不当作通过。

**为什么改**:原来的「每一个 check 全绿」在本仓库任何一个 PR 上都做不到——路径过滤的 job 本来就以 `skipped`
结束,实测最近十次落地每次都有 8–19 个 skip。席位一直靠「记得哪些通常会 skip」在判断,而真正要分辨的是「预期
skip」与「本该跑却没跑」。现在名单是机器可读的,并且自测会把名单逐条对照真实 workflow 文件校验(job
存在、名字一致、带条件、条件拼写一致),名单不会悄悄过期。

**风险与代价(含回滚)**:规则层只改一行(≤120 B、行数 812 不变);脚本只读不写、不接入任何门禁,CI
不因它变红。名单是名字层面的判断,不回答「这个 diff 是否本该触发某个
job」——必查项由合并队列在合并树上全量重跑兜底,这一点写在脚本头部。回滚 = revert 本 PR。

**席位意见**:(留空,席位定稿)

**你要做的**:本 PR 触及 `.claude/**`(规则层),需要你的 APPROVED;之后由席位落地。是否把该脚本的自测接进
lint.yml(一行 `pnpm check:pm-expected-skips`)由席位决定,本 PR 未动 lint.yml。

---
_Generated by [Claude
Code](https://claude.ai/code/session_01HZfg2AwVX191qCizp88gQr)_

Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>

Author: os-zhuang

.claude/skills/pm-dispatch/SKILL.md

@@ -626,7 +626,7 @@ PM 的工作是循环:选卡 → 认领 → 派发 → 收集 → 复核 → 报
 - 受管面两层:事实层仅本技能 `references/`,其余为规则层(含发布 `skills/**` 与 SKILL.md)。
 - 规则层四件套等人批;事实层 PR(受管路径全在该目录)经席内达档复核后 ready → 入队。
 - 路径面干净的才转 ready → 入队;队列是唯一被认可的落地路径,⛔ 永不队列外合并。
-- 入队资格 = PR 上每一个 check 全绿,⛔ 不是 required 子集;required 集是队列强制的地板。
+- 入队资格 = 每个 check 为 success 或预期 skip(名单:check-expected-skips.mjs),⛔ 不是 required 子集。
 - 非必查红是真缺陷或坏门,归 PM 入队前处置;第三种按设计而红,三条全立才可带红入队:
 - 源码自述 pushed 分支上按设计而红、不跑 `merge_group`、PR 评论记明门与因,缺一即否。
 - 本段只适用本循环派发的 dev PR;PM 自己的工具 PR 留维护者。

package.json

@@ -91,6 +91,7 @@
     "check:pm-governed-merges": "node scripts/pm/check-governed-merges.mjs --self-test",
     "check:pm-governed-prose": "node scripts/pm/check-governed-prose.mjs --self-test && node scripts/pm/check-governed-prose.mjs",
     "check:pm-settings-deny-roster": "node scripts/pm/check-settings-deny-roster.mjs --self-test && node scripts/pm/check-settings-deny-roster.mjs",
+    "check:pm-expected-skips": "node scripts/pm/check-expected-skips.mjs --self-test",
     "check:publish-smoke-pin": "node scripts/publish-smoke-pack.mjs --self-test",
     "check:partof-closing-keyword": "node scripts/check-partof-closing-keyword.mjs --self-test",
     "check:commit-card-trailers": "node scripts/check-commit-card-trailers.mjs --self-test",